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Now Every Kiwi Has A Mobile, What Next? |
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Written by Adam Gosling
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Thursday, 09 August 2007 |
According to numbers crunched by Industry research outfit
IDC, New Zealand has joined the ranks of mature mobile phone markets
with the latest numbers showing there are more mobile phone
subscriptions in New Zealand that there are people.
Vodafone
and NZ incumbent, Telecom have announced recently announced their
mid-year subscriber figures and industry researcher IDC estimates that
the country has now officially passed the 100% penetration mark to
reach 101%, or 4.25
million mobile subscribers.
This means that growth for the country's only two mobile phone
carriers is reduced to stealing customers from each other - or as has
happened in the past year - convince people they need a phone on both
networks.
"The
New Zealand mobile market is reasonably unique with a high level of maturity
and above 100% penetration, yet only two operators present. Interestingly,
we've hit 100% mobile penetration before Australia has. Last year, New Zealand
saw an upheaval in the Internet sector, with the mobile space looking set to be
next," said IDC telecommunications analyst, Darian Bird.
While
pricing has become more competitive, the growing occurrence of on-net plans has
seen dual-device ownership become commonplace in the consumer market. As a
result, a large proportion of the 12% subscriber growth over the last year
stemmed from consumers with both Vodafone and Telecom accounts, says IDC.
"The
next few years will be a pivotal period as the telecommunications market is
evolving and converging with the IT space, we'll see a change in the balance of
competition," said Bird.
The
cellular services market share has changed since the beginning of 2005, after
Telecom turned the tide of a rapidly shrinking share of the market, according to the reported numbers. Vodafone
saw its share of subscribers slip slightly to 53% by the middle of 2007, from
55% a year ago.
"The
time is ripe for a third operator to enter the mobile market in New Zealand,
with regulatory changes imminent. Telecom will be distracted by its separation,
while the new competitive landscape in the Internet space is opening the door
for a mobile player to forge partnerships as ISPs struggle for survival. Also,
Telecom's planned move down the WCDMA path will help drive competition for
national mobile roaming, and the advent of mobile broadband will create
opportunities for new players."
"Some
of more developed countries around the world are already above 110%
penetration, so we'd expect the mobile market in New Zealand to keep
growing," Bird said. IDC predicts that the mobile market will
average 2.5% growth per year through 2011. By then, the country will have
around 4.6 million subscribers spread across probably three mobile networks.
"The
wildcard will be how effective NZ Communications is and how quickly it can roll
out a network. It appears they'll position themselves as a discount operator,
but the response from Vodafone and Telecom will be aggressive, "The key
for them will be attracting a large customer base as soon as possible, to gain
some scale on their network. Otherwise, New Zealand's high mobile termination
rates will eat into their profits," added Bird.
New Zealand Cellular Services 2007-2011 Forecast and Analysis
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