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Pre-N WLAN Sales Grind To A Halt |
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Written by Adam Gosling
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Wednesday, 06 September 2006 |
It looks like the wireless networking vendors efforts to get
the Wi-Fi Alliance on side with their off standard device shipments was for a
very good reason. The non-standard gear isn't selling anymore. That's hardly surprising since there's a good chance it won't work with the next round of pre-standard product to be releasednext year.
After an initial spurt of early adopters grabbed the first 802.11n
Draft 1.0 devices earlier in the year, DigiTimes
is reporting the component makers in Taiwan have seen their Pre-N component
orders fall off dramatically since mid-year.
Shipments in the second quarter were around two million, but
the outlook is pretty bleak after July and then August turned stone cold.
One component supplier said that after filling orders for 300,000
units of pre-N product in June, its monthly demand fell to 100,000-200,000
units in July and August.
The ongoing shenanigans in
the IEEE 802.11n Standards process might backfire on the bickering component
and device makers if buyers decide they are better off waiting for some more
stability and a final standard before proffering up their hard earned for a
device that might be a white elephant or prove to be a vendor lock in.
To try to combat these concerns and bolster the confidence of
potential buyers, the Wi-Fi Alliance has taken the unprecedented move of
announcing it will certify product based on the Draft 2.0 standard if the Committee
gets the next draft through a vote early next year.
Alternatively, the Alliance has sent a warning shot
across the IEEE's bow saying that if next draft doesn't manage the required
75 per cent majority then the Alliance will put together its own de-facto Standard.
The Wi-Fi Alliance is a non-profit marketing and ceritfication organisation funded by itsmembership which "is a 'Who's Who
List' of companies involved in Wi-Fi technology and services".
The current crop of Pre-N products currently being sold are based on the Draft 1.0 specifcations which were voted down at an IEEE Standards committee meeting earlier this year. The Committee is currently working to develop a second Draft to put to a vote in the new year. It's this second draft, if it is successful that the Wi-Fi Alliance plans to do the first round of certification.
While it may be possible for Draft 1.0 product to be upgraded to work with latter version of the stnadard there are no guarantees. It is hoped that if the Draft 2.0 specifications are agreed next March final Standards-based 802.11n hardware could be made available in the first quarter of 2008.
Product based on the Draft 2.0 specifications has a better chance of being Firmware upgradeable to Standards compliance than the Draft 1.0 product curently being sold.
There's a good wrap up of the story so far here .
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