Mobile, Not VoIP The Big Growth Area For Voice

Written by Adam Gosling

Friday, 16 March 2007

Voice over Internet Protocol may be getting all the media attention in 2007, but its mobile phones that continue to show the strongest growth globally. According to analyst and consulting company, Ovum, it is cell phones and mobiles that will continue to be the darling of the voice market for the foreseeable future. And it is a trend that is driving long-term structural change in the industry as operators create partnerships in order to survive. The Asia Pacific region, as we have heard before is where all the action is. It contains several emerging markets including India and China which are both adding mobile phone users by the millions. By 2010, Ovum expect the region to host over 2 billion fixed and mobile voice connections, 42 per cent of the global total. 85 per cent of these voice connections will be based in emerging markets within the region, but over all an amazingly 77 per cent of them will be mobile. But it doesn't matter whether you look at mature or emerging markets, the story is similar. In emerging markets, we will see even faster growth in mobile, but a flat market for fixed connections and revenues: as you would expect. While in developed markets, mobile growth will continue to drive fixed revenues downward. Either way, Ovum doesn't expect VoIP to emerge as a major competitive threat to established operators in either markets until well into the next decade. The upshot is that mobile is becoming the dominant voice platform in both kinds of markets. David Kennedy, Research Director, Ovum Asia-Pacific, said "Fixed-mobile convergence strategies in developed markets, such as bundling and fixed-mobile convergent devices, will slow but not stop the trend. We predict that fixed voice revenue will fall by an average of 20 per cent across these markets between 2006 and 2010. Mobile revenue will grow 9 per cent, while total voice revenue will fall slightly, almost 2 per cent". Emerging markets, including China and India, will show a different pattern. Mobile voice will grow faster than in developing countries, 67 per cent over the 2006-2010 period. Meanwhile, fixed revenues will stagnate. Total voice revenues will rise by 39 per cent. "The risk for fixed operations is that fixed voice will be sidelined as a growth product for years to come", said Kennedy. What of the partnerships mentioned above? Well, Ovum says the trend towards consolidation of fixed and mobile operations will accelerate in developed markets throughout the Asia Pacific. Fixed-only and mobile-only operators will need to seek partnership and acquisitions to strengthen their competitive position. Meanwhile, in emerging markets, the boundaries between fixed and mobile services will blur as operators exploit new wireless data technology to reach underserved customers, says Ovum. Related news items Seven In Unwired Takeover Bid -26/09/2007 Telstra Wireless Hits Speed Record -24/09/2007 Chilli iBurst Increases Download Limits -16/09/2007 First Windows 6 Palm In Australia -12/09/2007 With Half A Billion Cell Phones China Readies High Speed -24/08/2007 Newer news items First BB Now Optus Goes Down -24/04/2007 Campus Wireless Means Faster Downloads -23/04/2007 Aussie Bush Could Get Second 3G Network -16/04/2007 Railroad Gets Its Own 3G Coverage -03/04/2007 Disruptive Bundle Brings Skype To Mobiles -27/03/2007 Older news items Opera Community On T-Mobile -15/03/2007 3 Could Take In More Cash From NZ -06/03/2007 NZ Telcos Mislead With Marketing -02/03/2007 Mobile Rates Cut By 40% -26/02/2007 SMS Revenues To Get Stratospheric -26/02/2007 Tag This Now: